1. Original Scientific Paper
Abstract

Fertility plays a major role in changing population dynamics of a country and thus understanding future fertility is important for predicting population scenario in future. The aim of the study is to develop predictive models of fertility schedule for Malaysia at different points of time. To fulfil the aim, the study uses secondary sources of data on fertility schedule such as crude birth rate (CBR) and total fertility rate (TFR) of Malaysia which are readily available from Statistics Office of the Government of Malaysia. Polynomial models were fitted to fertility schedule of Malaysia by the Gauss- Newton method using the software STATISTICA and the validity of the model was examined by cross-validity prediction power (CVPP). Thereafter, projections of fertility schedule, CBR and TFR of Malaysia were completed by employing exponential growth rate method for the period of 2013-2040. It was observed that fertility schedule of Malaysia at different points of time follow cubic polynomial models but for 2012 it follows bi-quadratic polynomial model. Using CVPP criterion and 2 R , it was found that these models are well. Moreover, it was investigated that all fertility parameters used in this study were showing decreasing trend over time and these were projected up to 2040 and these projections were also displaying downward trend in accordance with time.

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